|
Of course we're all aware (thanks in part to N.Z. Bear), that President Chen of Taiwan has called for a referendum on Taiwanese independence, and in doing so has mightily pissed off Beijing. Both Beijing and Taipei have long maintained that there is but one China. In recent years, however, as Nationalist refugees from the mainland have died off, and the rest of the world has refused to uphold the charade any longer, there has been a movement to recognize Taiwan as independent de facto. Beijing still gets its panties in a wad, however, at the suggestion that the government at Taipei is legitimate in any way, shape, or form, or that Taiwan is a separate country from the P.R.C. The U.S., in the meanwhile, has restricted the military materiel that Taipei can buy, and carefully sabotaged its nuclear weapons reseach program, to ensure the Chinese cold war does not suddenly heat up. The defects in Taiwan's defense posture caused by U.S. insistence that it not pose an open threat to China has been balanced by a U.S. commitment to aid in defending the island from Chinese aggression. With the Iraqi confrontation heating up, however, there is increasing question if we could defend Taiwan even if we wished. Certainly, China has no possibility of forcing a landing in Taiwan, or even of maintaining a blockade against the wishes the U.S.; the Chinese navy is a collection of Soviet-era antiques. It has been suggested though, that sufficiently determined China could force U.S. acquiescence by a threat of first use of nuclear weapons. Anything short of an immediate rollover by Taiwan, however, would certainly destroy its economy for decades to come. As Taiwan is, sub rosa, a major trading partner with China, this destruction would bring down the Chinese economy, and very likely throw the world into a depression, the likes of which has not been seen since the 1930s. This proposed referendum is a geopolitical game of chicken; the initiative rests with Chen. A vote for independence would lead to a Chinese-Taiwanese war; a vote against independence would result in renewed pressure by Beijing on the U.S. to allow Taiwan to be reabsorbed. The acceptable solution is for the referendum not to be held. Chen knows that. John "Akatsukami" Braue Sunday, August 11, 2002 |
|