|
This International Herald Tribune article suggests that Saddam Hussein is planning to concentrate his forces in Iraqi cities – not necessarily to win the war, but to secure the victory through propaganda. His plan is sound in that there is simply no way that U.S. forces could winkle his troops out without massive civilian casualties. Aerial bombardment might seriously degrade his C4I capacity, but such bombardment – as evinced by the Afghan campaign – is not bloodless. Moreover, in the absence of a coup by anti-Hussein forces, or by elements of the Iraqi army and intelligence community unwilling to accept the hardships of a war of sieges, we must send in ground troops – no one can truly be said to command a position until they can plant a troop's boots on it. Current U.S, military doctrine, IIRC, calls for a force ration of 10:1 in urban warfare. Whilst the number of troops involved can be reduced by "force multipliers" – quality of soldiers, weaponry, command factors, etc. – we are realistically still talking about a numerical advantage of 2.5:1 here. This level of engagement will result in a minimum of thousands of American, and tens of thousands of military and civilian Iraqi casualties. And this is where Hussein plans to win the propaganda battle. Real and faked footage of the dead and maimed, of the destruction of "harmless civilian facilities" (remember the "Baby Milk Factory", will be broadcast by Baghdad to the eagerly awaiting alphabet-soup networks and to the Axis of Stupid (the E.U./U.N.). Hussein will try both to get the international left, "horrified" by Iraqi casualties, to protest the war and "take action" against the U.S., and to truly horrify the American mainstream with dead, maimed, and tortured troops, until they demand a withdrawal to protect the well-being of American troops. John "Akatsukami" Braue Sunday, August 11, 2002 |
|