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Dan Hartung at Lake Effect picks up on my article on Indian interest in the Russian light carrier Admiral Gorshkov. I'll endorse what he has to say, save for this
Even so, the lack of a mission means it's a begged question. India's greatest strategic concern, stand-down or not, remains Pakistan; and in that regard there is very little an aircraft carrier would do that their land-based forces cannot. I would argue that Pakistan, as a strategic problem, is one that New Delhi believes in has an answer to (nor are they alone in so believing). Indian armed forces are now capable of conquering Pakistan -- not just holding off Pakistan, or defeating it in a war, but of bringing about a scenario at the end of which India exists as a functioning polity, and Pakistan does not. It would be expensive for India to do play out that scenario, of course -- and with both sides in the conflict having nuclear weapons, the cost to India would not be in rupees and dead soldiers alone. But India could do it. Gearing up for a carrier, perhaps even an American-style carrier group, is necessary in the Indo-Pak conflict. India sees it as being convenient, if not necessary, for the future -- to secure its eastern trade routes in the event of Indonesia collapsing or becoming an enemy of India, and to balance out Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean (Myanmar is virtually a Chinese puppet now). India is thinking ten years the road. I do not, incidentally, view Indian interest in South Asian hegemony as a bad or unjustified thing per se. My previous article may have given a different impression; that is due to incoherent writing on my part. John "Akatsukami" Braue Saturday, June 15, 2002 |
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